No Priors
The trillion-dollar cohort was punctuated equilibrium, not the new normal
Three companies went from roughly zero to a trillion in five years, and investors are now pricing dozens of follow-ons at that same velocity. The pushback: the market size may well be there, but the speed almost certainly isn't, and people are conflating the two. Inside the labs, compute scarcity has quietly turned into a human power law, with a few dozen researchers driving most results and hiring slowing because the cost isn't the researcher, it's the compute attached to them. The counterweight to lab RSI hype: smart, self-aware scientists have believed recursive self-improvement was eighteen months out, every eighteen months, for five years running. On when to sell: schedule the conversation on the calendar so it isn't emotional, because "your most productive years of your life are on the line right now."
- #funding
- #policy
- #agents
