The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck
Greenblatt's timeline: AI R&D fully automated by 2029, then takeover
"I wouldn't say superintelligence is bad. I would say it's dangerous." Greenblatt's central scenario has software engineering inside AI companies fully automated by early 2028, full AI R&D automation around start of 2029, then a 4x to 5x jump in research speed that runs ahead of anyone's ability to align or even understand the systems. His AI 2040 Plan A is a US-China deal built entirely on locating and freezing compute, with total research transparency that would gut frontier labs' biggest moat and shrink their valuations while leaving the businesses intact. He does not expect it to happen, and says the bottleneck is political will rather than technical competence. He also calls Zuckerberg's superintelligence manifesto unserious for naming risks without proposing anything, and argues that keeping frontier models internal makes his top risks worse, not better, since AI companies and government are the two highest-stakes deployment sites.
- #policy
- #agents
- #evals
